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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still